Author | : Mr.Mark P. Taylor |
File Size | : 46,5 Mb |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Language | : English |
Release Date | : 01 May 1992 |
ISBN | : 9781451978803 |
Pages | : 28 pages |
The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate by Mr.Mark P. Taylor Book PDF Summary
We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.